Jul. 6th, 2008

[identity profile] x-dominion.livejournal.com
PAKISTAN IN TURMOIL



Islamabad burned today, as the warring factions clashed on the streets of Pakistan's capital. The tentative talks between the opposition parties about the possible formation of a caretaker government ended in tragedy as Benazir Bhutto was brutally assassinated at her own home. Her husband, who accompanied her return from the exile, was also killed.

The leadership of Pakistan People's Party has devolved to her nineteen-year old son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. Zarari wasted no time blaming the leader of the rival Pakistan Muslim League, Nawaz Sharif, for the attack. As the loyalists and militias of the two main opposition parties clashed in the vicious street battles, the martial law and the rule of the junta that displaced General Musharraf in the wake of the Srinagar crisis has disintegrated.

It now seems evident that the tragedy that took place in Kashmir was too much of a shock for Pakistan, where ethnic, religious and political tensions have been building steadily for the last three decades. Bhutto's assassination removed the last figure who could have possibly negotiated a truce between the various factions now openly struggling for control. With her gone, and any hope for the coalition between the PPP and the PML destroyed, the military oligarchy imploded under its own weight.

While in the past the Pakistani army could be counted to present a bulwark to the centrifugal pressures of their society, the monolithic nature of the military itself has been steadily undermined since the 1970s as the West, Pakistan and the Islamic world encouraged the rise of anti-Soviet jihad. As the Taliban took over Pakistan's troubled neighbor to the north, the situation worsened exponentially. Originally envisioned as a puppet of Islamabad, the enigmatic leaders of the Afghans, Mullah Omar, has utilized the fervor of his adherents and financial backing of his Al Qaeda Praetorian Guard to turn the table on his would be masters.

Adopting the moral high ground of the 'pure' Islamic faith and clothing his policies in Pashtu nationalism, Omar steadily eroded Pakistan's hold on the warlike tribes of its infamous NorthWestern Province which has long supplied many of Pakistan's soldiers and officers. Omar's calls for religious government to be installed in Islamabad as well as in Kabul, resonated all the more among the Pashtuns because they were accompanied by the century-long lure of overturning the so-called Durrand line. This border drawn by the British Raj for its own convenience in 1893, sundering tribes, clans and families, leaving some as subjects of Pakistan and others as that Kabul government.

With the its regular military mobilized to confront India on Pakistan's southern border, the security of NWFP has been largely left to the Frontier Coprs, a paramilitary organization whose recruits are drawn largely from the local tribesmen. Predictably, their loyalty could not be counted upon at the time of crisis as Omar's decades of work had born fruit and the Taliban troops have flooded across the border, proclaiming the unification of two countries and a creation of Islamic Caliphate of Pashtunistan.

It is, of course, a patently laughable exercise - were the situation in Pakistan anything approaching normality. At the present juncture of events, however, the threat from the truck-born lightly armed Taliban militia is all too real. Even the bulk of the Pakistani troops, composed of non-Pashtuns has disintegrated into several mutually hostile factions, as the former members of the military junta maneuver for power.

Some are reportedly have already reached out to Taliban in search of allies. Others are looking toward Iran, as Ahmedinejad has begann massing troops and warning that the Teheran goverment will not tolerate abuses against Pakistan's Shiite minority.

The confusion has also been compounded by the resurgence of the long simmering discontent of the Baluchi provinces. Although their last rebellion in 1973 has been put down with brutal efficiency, the lingering desire for the autonomy remained and had been sparked by the current instability. Several units, composed primarily of the Baloch troops have reportedly mutinied and joined the demonstrators in Karachi and Quetta.

All the long-suppressed tensions of this unhappy country have been brought to a boil by a singularly cruel twist of fate. In a macabre irony, the tragedy that unfolded within India's borders has driven Pakistan to its knees, placing it and its nuclear arsenal at the crossroads of history with the future unpredictable and dark.

As this young state, cobbled form the fragile patchwork of tribes in the dying throes of the British Empire, crumbles along every conceivable social, religious and political faultline all eyes turn toward Calysee Khan nee Neramani, who has unexpectedly stepped into the vacuum left by the singular failure of the rest of the country's leadership.

Seemingly a perfect illustration of the old saying 'comes a moment, comes a man' - this widow of a highly respected military leader, she is probably the last of nationally respected figures on the Pakistan's scene today, who might be able to forestall the ongoing devolution.

Her esteem has been bought in no small part by her very reticence to trade on her family connections and to enter the political arena up till now. As the events continue to spiral out of control Mrs. Khan appears to be the only force holding the situation from the complete collapse.

Buttressed not only by her husband's reputation, but also by her brother's rapid ascent to power in New Delhi, Calysee has been able to parlay her outsider status into tangible political influence with astonishing speed. Backed, subtly but explicitly, by D Ken, she now grasps at the slender hope of pulling her country from the brink of oblivion.

The broader international community has wasted little time in expressing their support for her as well. This comes as no surprise, as Khan presents an almost miraculous opportunity to marginalize the separatists, re-unite the military, avert the war with India and to retain control of the Pakistani nuclear weapons.

What has proven somewhat astonishing is the fact that her foreign backing has not so far made Khan unpalatable to the Pakistanis. it would appear that the Punjabis, who comprise the ruling majority of Pakistan's population and the overwhelming bulk of its urban and educated classes, are desperate for any way out of the current crisis.

Still, Calysee lacks any organized internal support and is facing the almost insurmountable odds of the centrifugal forces that are reaching its apogee in a perfect storm of entropy. It is unlikely that, unless the international support manifests itself in more tangible ways, the Grand Widow will be able to prevent the monumental cataclysm now engulfing the child of Jinnah.
[identity profile] x-dominion.livejournal.com


Ladies and gentlemen, you have heard the emergency resolution from the UN Security Council.

At the urging of Calysee Khan, speaking for the remaining Pakistani government leadership and the Pakistani Ambassador, the UN will be sending peacekeeping forces into Pakistan in order to secure their nuclear arsenal. They will be operating in conjunction with elements of the Pakistani military that are still loyal to the central government.

President McKenna has offered to provide the first deployment of peacekeepers from the United States Seventh army, headquartered in Heidelberg, Germany. We have General Speer, the acting Commanding General in charge on a satellite link. The General has limited time, so no questions please.

[uplink ready]

Good afternoon. I'm General Gary Speer. The ultimate configuration of the UN Peacekeeping force is still be debated in the security council, as you're aware. The President has authorized the deployment of American rapid response forces in order to stabilize the situation on the ground until additional forces arrive next week.

The 173rd Airborne Brigade will deploy from Bamburg and Schweinfurt, Germany, and Vicenza, Italy. The UN Ambassador for Pakistan has assured us that the government forces still hold the major airports in Islamabad and other cities. The US 5th Fleet will be providing aerial and tactical support from off the coast, and the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit will provide additional support if needed. British and German first response units will follow within 72 hours.

Our primary objective is to assist the current government in securing their nuclear sites so no materials fall into rebel hands. Our mission does not include a mandate for any operations either on on behalf of the current remaining government or interim leaders beyond ensuring the security of Pakistan's nuclear materials.

Thank you.

[uplink closed]

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