Bhagavad Gita: Le Monde

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LE MONDE | 1 Juliet 2008 | Françoise Chipaux

In a stunning display of naivete, if not outright falsehood, the White House assured the world today that the crisis currently gripping the Indian subcontinent is in the process of de-escalation. President McKenna issued a statement proclaiming that he is in touch with the leaders in India, Pakistan, China and Russia and that he is sure that the solution will be found to return the troubled region to the status quo ante.

Such promises and predictions seems very extravagant as the news pours in, continuing to describe a very grim situation that has shown little trends to the better. Among other things, McKenna has referenced the 1999 Kargil crisis as an example of successful American diplomatic mediation between Islamabad and New Delhi. It would be a height of unfounded optimism, however, to expect a replay of that incident's resolution.

Since the end of the Cold War the United States, in a myopic miscalculation of the strategic situation, has steadily decreased its presence in Central Asia, increasingly relying on India to keep the stability in the region. Strengthening ties between the US and India, inevitably alarmed Pakistan, which was increasingly feeling abandoned by its erstwhile Cold War ally. It was only logical that Islamabad would turn toward Beijing in order to maintain strategic parity with its great rival.

As a result the United States finds itself with very little clout over Islamabad today, and the influence of China is not yet strong enough in Pakistan to force it to back down from its increasingly militant posture. Meanwhile, on the other side of the border India continues to mobilize its troops, massing 300 000 troops on the border, according to the latest estimates, and contributing to the volatility of the situation.

Moreover, there are steady reports asserting that General Musharraf has been placed under a house arrest by a military junta, which is now in de-facto control of Pakistan. These news were stridently denied by Islamabad and dismissed as a pernicious rumor, spread by India. The government spokesperson explained General Musharraf's recent unavailability on his sickness, brought on by overwork. Islamabad has also issued denials that Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, previously exiled leaders of opposition parties, have been sighted back within Pakistan.

Pervez Musharraf, who assumed the dictatorial power in Pakistan after his 1999 coup d'etat, has been dealing with an increasingly unstable country, but was able to maintain control - spurning the pressure from the West to hold elections or to relinquish his military title. As the martial law was declared and a curfew instituted in all the provincial capitals yesterday, however, the questions continue to mount whether this latest crisis has pushed Pakistan, a nuclear power, past the point of no return and set it on the road to violent and unpredictable dissolution.